Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price.
But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us.
On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President.
I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas!
The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year.
There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now.
Bitcoin
On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support.
But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always)
Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks.
As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period.
The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high.
On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon.
But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out.
If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week.
USD/CAD
After consolidating for a month, USD/CAD has just closed the week at its highest in nearly five years (it was last at these levels before the March 2020 covid panic).
We are interpreting the price action as a bullish breakout.
As always, the risk is a fakeout that in this case could create a bigger correction in the trend after an extended run of higher prices.
On the daily chart we see the confirmed breakout from a neat bull flag pattern accompanied by a break above a falling trendline on the RSI.
Like most breakout trades our risk is pretty well defined. Should the price close back under the top of the flag pattern, we will assume the idea to go long is wrong.
UK 100
We first alluded to this weekly triangle pattern in the UK 100 in week 43 of last year, and updated our analysis just after the British election in week 51, which we correctly predicted could be the catalyst for a breakout sooner rather than later.
NOTE: you can find UK 100 on the WeTrade MT4/5 platform as 100GBP.
Finally it has broken - and the chart is looking very positive.
The breakout weekly candle is a long one with a close right near the highs - showing bulls are well in control of the market.
We can see the triangle break in more granular detail on the daily chart with the break confirmed on Thursday and a strong follow-through move on Friday.
Support is found first at the former all time high (8450-8475) then back at the broken trendline from the triangle pattern.
Using the height of the triangle pattern as a price objective from the breakout point, the UK 100 could reach 9,000.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
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Produced by Jasper and the Trading Writers team in collaboration with WeTrade
